Henderson County Labor Market Analysis

The following information is the Executive Summary from the Labor Market Analysis conducted by Lockwood Greene Consulting.

The purpose of the labor study is to include an analysis of (1) the existing labor force in Henderson County, (2) the underemployed workforce in Henderson County, and (3) the total workforce that is potentially available to employers in Henderson County. (See the following definitions of underemployment, the job-seeking unemployed, and the potentially available workforce.) A table illustrating all calculations is in this Labor Study section of the Executive Summary and is referenced throughout this narrative. This information was obtained through a two-=?pronged approach.

Employer and stakeholder interviews - Lockwood Greene conducted confidential interviews with key organizations and companies in the area. Relevant leaders in organizations concerned with workforce development, employment training and services, vocational technical centers, and labor/workforce councils were identified by the Committee of 100 and interviewed. Additionally, the human resource personnel of the major employers in the area were included in the interviews. Our initial understanding of the labor force, obtained through these confidential interviews, was confirmed by the results of the Direct Assessment survey process described below.

Direct Assessment - Telephone surveys were completed with 400 households in Henderson County. The persons who responded to the survey had to be over 18 years of age. They also had to have either a full and/or part time job, or want a full or part time job, if they were not working. The household survey targets were selected using a stratified random sampling technique. With 400 completed surveys, this provides a statistically significant sample that is representative of the local workforce conditions at a 95 percent level of confidence (+5 percent margin of error). Please note: 604 households were initially contacted to arrive at the 400 households that compose the sample population.

One hundred and one (101) surveys were mailed to businesses in the area, and 41 responses were returned for analysis. The business survey targets were identified through the confidential interviews, by consulting with the Committee of 100 and by using=? business directories. Both the household and business surveys were administered by the University of Florida?s Survey Research Center.

Copies of both the telephone and mail survey instruments and the respective Master Response Questionnaires are found in the Appendix of the Labor Study report. This is very interesting and valuable information which the Committee of 100 can strategically use in their economic development initiatives, promotional information and activities.

Definition Of Underemployment, The Job-Seeking Unemployed, And The Potentially Available Workforce
As described previously, the report includes a characterization of the existing labor force plus an important description of the underemployed and the potentially available workforce in Henderson County. These represent an extremely valuable ?latent? source of labor that can be recruited for employment by local business and industry. Therefore, it is crucial to understand (i) who these workers/residents are, and (ii) the extent to which these economic/employment conditions exist in Henderson County.

THE UNDEREMPLOYED WORKFORCE (See Note [2] in the following table.)
For the purposes of the labor study, the underemployed workforce is composed of those residents in Henderson County who are (i) working full time, part time, or both full and part time, (ii) would consider potentially changing jobs for a better wage or salary and (iii) indicate they are either somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with their job(s) for various reasons.

Oftentimes a var=?iety of conditions exist in an area, like Henderson County, that result in a workforce who indicates an interest in changing jobs for a better wage or salary. Among these are:

• Lack of appropriate jobs available in the area
• Overall lack of job opportunities in the area
• Some degree of job dissatisfaction
• Salary or wage levels that do not match the job
• Education, experience, skills and/or qualifications that do not match the job

All of these are reasons expressed by Henderson County residents interviewed during the telephone survey process. Therefore, for the purposes of this study, underemployment is defined as the number and percent of Henderson County residents who are working (full time, part time, or both full time/part), who would consider changing jobs for a better wage or salary (although some indicate no increase is necessary), and who are somewhat or very dissatisfied with their jobs for some or many of the reasons noted above. While this may be a broader definition of underemployment, Lockwood Greene believes it is a good reflection of recent and current economic trends in the U.S., which have resulted in declining company profits and bankruptcies, job loss, and the need by some who have lost their jobs to work in a full or part time job or other employment scenarios not of their choice.

UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE JOB-SEEKING UNEMPLOYED (See Note [7] in the following table.=?)
Historically, the unemployed population has not been looked to as a potential labor source for employers in an area. This was largely because unemployment rates were at a record low and the unemployed might not have had the work, education, personal or social skills needed to work. However, economic downturns around the world and the global restructuring of businesses and industry has resulted in rising unemployment rates and the loss of jobs for people with diverse education, experience, expertise, and skills, ranging from the semi-skilled laborers to management and senior level professionals. This rings true for Henderson County as well.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) defines unemployed persons as ??Persons 16 years and over who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4- week period ending with the reference week. The Employment Security Commission of North Carolina indicates the unemployment rate in Henderson County was 4.4 percent in February 2002.

In the Labor Study, however, Lockwood Greene has broadened the definition of unemployment, based on our understanding of the current labor situation in the area obtained through the telephone and mail survey processes and the confidential interviews and other research conducted for our overall work in Henderson County. For the purposes of the Labor Study, we are defining the unemployed as the residents who (i) participated in the telephone survey, (ii) do not currently have a job, (iii) would like to have a full or part time job, and (iv) are actively seeking a job, with no limit to the amount of time spent looking for work. The telephone survey results indicate that many of these job-seeking unemployed residents in Henderson County have good to better educat=?ion attainment levels, are experienced, and have worked in a variety of industries, ranging from manufacturing and professional, scientific, and technical services to health care and social assistance, accommodations and food services, and retail trade. These people are what economists call the ?hidden? unemployed. Because of these characteristics of the ?hidden? unemployed, we are including this ?hidden? labor pool in our definition of the potentially available workforce in Henderson County. This explains why the unemployment rates identified through the survey process and used in this study are greater than the official 4.4 percent ?official/technical? unemployment rate shown by the Employment Security Commission for Henderson County. (See following tables, Notes [10], [11].)

THE POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE WORKFORCE (See Note [8] in the following table.)
Thus, for the purposes of this study, Lockwood Greene defines the potentially available workforce in Henderson County as the ?latent? labor pool of residents that can be recruited for employment by local business and industry. This ?latent? pool of labor is comprised of two components: (i) the underemployed/dissatisfied and (2) the job-seeking unemployed, as described above.

Key Findings From the Household Survey of Henderson County Residents
The highlights from the household survey of 400 Henderson County residents follow. They present an understanding of important characteristics of the survey respondents. Moreover, since the 400 residents are a statistically significant representative sample of the Henderson County labor force, the highlights also provide important insights about the local workforce.

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HENDERSON COUNTY INTERVIEWEES

Demographics - A well-represented cross section of residents were interviewed. Of the 400, 57 percent are female and 43 percent are male. Ages range from 18 years to 80 years and older, and overall education attainment levels are very good. Thirty-four (34) percent estimate yearly family income to be under $35,000 and 66 percent estimate it to be $35,000 or more.

Type of Employment - 357 of the 400 residents interviewed are employed. Of these, 276 are employed full time (69 percent of the total 400), 58 have one or more part time jobs (14 percent), and 23 have a full time and one part time job (6 percent). 43 of the 400 residents interviewed are unemployed (10.8 percent).

Place of Work - The overwhelming majority of residents work in Henderson County.

Commute Time - Commute times vary, ranging from people with very short travel times who might be telecommuters or self-employed to five to 10 hours a week or more.

Size of Employer - Over 50 percent are employed by small companies of 50 employees or less.

Industry in which Employed - Manufacturing is still a primary employer of residents in Henderson County, but many are also working in retail trade; professional, scientific and technical services; educational services; health care and social assistance, and other industries.

Skills - The residents interviewed have a wide range of very employable skills. For example, computer skills are high, even for the unemployed. Residents =?indicate higher levels of office/clerical, customer service, and word processing/data entry skills than manufacturing, material handling and metalworking skills.

Training - Less than one-fourth are taking classes or participating in training to improve their skills. However, if they are enrolled in classes, most work for employers who pay for all or a part of these classes.

Wage and Salary - A significant number of interviewees indicate they would consider changing jobs if one with a higher wage or salary would become available. 61 percent of interviewees with full time employment would consider a job change, 52 percent of interviewees with part time employment would consider a job change, 74 percent of the full time/part time jobholders would consider changing their full time job and 39 percent would consider changing their part time job.

Job Satisfaction - Job dissatisfaction is very high among those who would consider changing jobs. Reasons for the high dissatisfaction are wage and salary level of the current job; inability to find an adequate number of full and/or part time jobs; and education, experience, and qualifications that do not match the current job.

The Unemployed - Most of the unemployed interviewees have good to better education attainment levels, are experienced, have worked in a variety of industries, and have a wide range of employable skills. 23 of the unemployed, or 53.5 percent, are currently looking for a full or part time job. For the purposes of this study, they are described as the job-seeking unemp=?loyed.

THE UNDEREMPLOYED WORKFORCE (See Notes [2] and [4] in the following table.)
As described previously in this Executive Summary, the underemployed workforce is defined as those employed workers who indicate (i) they would consider changing jobs if a better paying job would become available, and (ii) they are very dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied with their present job for a variety of job-related reasons.

Based on the results of the household survey and various statistical analyses, the number and percent of underemployed Henderson County residents from among those who participated in and completed the household survey can be calculated. Please Note: All of the figures and percentages used in Lockwood Greene?s (LG) calculations are based on the answers provided by the Henderson County residents who took part in the random sample household phone survey; calculations and cross tabulations completed by the University of Florida Survey Research Center; LG?s best practice research concerning labor studies, and our own experience obtained through the analysis of labor force for both economic development and location analysis studies.

Therefore, based on the study's definition of underemployment and the calculations and analyses described above and completed in the labor study, it is estimated that 178 of the 357 employed Henderson County residents who participated in the household phone survey are underemployed, interested in potentially changing jobs, and dissatisfied with their job for a variety of job-related reasons. Of these 178 residents, 146, or 40.9 percent are between 18 and 55 years of age, which are typically considered prime working years by employers. Given the study's +5 percent margin of e=?rror, the range is 139 to 153 residents between 18 and 55 years, or 38.9 percent to 42.9 percent of the employed workforce in this age range. (See Notes [5] and [6] in the following table.)

Based on the responses of the 400 Henderson County residents who participated in the household phone survey, Lockwood Greene Consulting believes this range is a good indicator of the underemployment in Henderson County due to an interest in changing jobs for a better wage or salary and some degree of job dissatisfaction. We conduct a great deal of best practice research that relates to our economic development and location analysis studies. Our best practice research regarding labor studies indicates that it is typically the population who is between 19 and 49 years that is surveyed in a labor study. In these studies, the underemployment rate ranges from 15 percent to 30 percent, but it only is relevant for the 19 to 49 year old worker.

In our study, however, residents 18 years and older were surveyed as part of the process. Since many 18 year olders are working full or part time for a variety of reasons, we believe that they should be included in the household survey. We also strongly believe that workers 50 years and older comprise a valuable and critical part of today?s workforce and the workforce of the future.

Furthermore, we understand the demographics of Henderson County, especially related to age, and know there are many 50 years and older who are working or who are unemployed and looking for a job. We also realize that Henderson County is home to many retirees, who sometimes are looking forward to having a different type of job or a second career in Henderson County. Therefore, we have completed our analyses for the workforce 18 years and older.

We also have identified the number and percent of the underemployed, job-seeking unemployed and the total potential available workforce who are between 18 and 55 years of age. This is because data about these prime working years is the type of information in which an existing or new employer may be most interested and which local stakeholders should understand and have.

THE JOB-SEEKING UNEMPLOYED (See Note [7] in the following table.)
The job-seeking unemployed are an important component of the total potential available workforce. And, in Henderson County, survey responses indicate the job-seeking unemployed have good to better education attainment levels, are experienced, and have worked in a variety of industries, ranging from manufacturing and professional, scientific, and technical services to health care and social assistance, accommodations and food services, and retail trade. As can be seen in the following table, 23 of the 43 unemployed survey respondents are searching for a full or part time job, and, of these, 14 are between 18 and 55 years in age.

THE TOTAL POTENTIAL AVAILABLE WORKFORCE
As defined previously, the total potential available workforce is composed of the underemployed (the dissatisfied who are interested in changing jobs for the same or a better wage or salary) and the job-seeking unemployed. Hence, based on the survey responses, the potential available workforce totals 201 of the 400 residents surveyed who were over 18 years of age. And, of these, 160, or 40 percent are between 18 and 55 years of age. See Notes [5] and [8] on the following table.

THE TOTAL POTENTIAL AVAILABLE WORKFORCE IN HENDERSON COUNTY
As noted in the beginning of this Executive Summary, the 400 households interviewed during the telephone survey process are a statistically significant representative sample of local workforce conditions at a 95 percent level of confidence (+5 percent error of margin). Therefore, the underemployment rate identified from the survey results can be extrapolated to the current labor force to estimate the number of employed residents who are underemployed in Henderson County. And, the numbers and percentages that relate to the potentially available workforce that is either (i) underemployed/dissatisfied or (ii) the job-seeking unemployed can also be extrapolated to the current labor force to estimate the total potential available workforce in Henderson County.

Please Note:
Lockwood Greene has used the lower end of the confidence range of underemployed workers derived from the findings of the study to extrapolate underemployment conditions in Henderson County. We have selected the lower end of the confidence range to help adjust for the degree of job dissatisfaction that we believe might be reflected in the answers of the residents during the telephone survey, due to recent and current economic trends in the immediate area and throughout the country and the slow, extended recovery of the nation?s economy. (See Note 12] in the following table.)

Per the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina, the total labor force in Henderson County in February 2002 totaled 37,670, composed of an employed workforce of 36,020 plus 1,650 unemployed persons. Based upon the definitions, findings and conclusion of the Labor Study, the underemployed workforce (who is dissatisfied and potentially interested in changing jobs) i=?s estimated to be 17,960, and of these, 14,012 are between the ages of 18 and 55 years. The potential available workforce 18 years and older is estimated to be 20,126, with 15,330 between the ages of 18 and 55, considered prime working years by employers. (See Notes [5] and [12] in the following table.

Given the telephone survey's + 5 percent margin of error, the total potential available workforce (between 18 and 55 years) could range from 14,564 to 16,097 Henderson County residents. This range for the potentially available workforce indicates that the Henderson County economy is extremely elastic with significant numbers of residents who:

• Are dissatisfied with their current job(s) for a variety of job-related reasons, if employed;
• Are searching for a full or part time job, if unemployed;
• Would consider changing jobs if a better paying job would become available (although some indicate no increase in wage or salary is necessary to consider a job change);
• Are dissatisfied with the opportunity to find a full time or part time job in Henderson County;
• Are an extremely valuable, experienced labor resource for existing and new employers in Henderson County.

A table showing the Estimated Underemployment and Potential Available Workforce in Henderson County follows. These calculations are all completed and included in the Labor Study report.

Estimated Underemployment and Total Potential Available Workforce in Henderson County